Political Economy Analysis

In November 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the COVID-19 era, not as a sudden shock, but as the inevitable outcome of years of infrastructure-driven borrowing, copper dependence, and fiscal mismanagement. Five years on, the IMF programme has concluded, the majority of external debt has been restructured, and a successor arrangement is being negotiated. But the discipline required to sustain the gains is already showing cracks ahead of the August 2026 elections. This brief examines where Zambia actually stands, what its experience with Chinese creditors revealed about African debt architecture, and what the investor risk outlook looks like for the months ahead.

Kenya enters its 2027 electoral cycle carrying the weight of a KSh 12.3 trillion debt burden, a fragmented opposition reshaped by the death of Raila Odinga, and an incumbent administration that has been quietly rearranging the institutional landscape in its favour. The fiscal pressures are real, the political signals are concerning, and the window for informed preparedness is narrowing. This brief examines what is actually happening and what must be done before the country finds itself in a crisis it could have seen coming.

Kenya's engagement with the IMF under the Extended Credit Facility has exposed the structural weaknesses in the country's fiscal governance framework. Revenue underperformance, rising debt service costs, and the political economy constraints on expenditure reduction have combined to produce a fiscal position that is increasingly difficult to manage without external support.