Political Economy Analysis

South Africa is the most industrialised economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and the anchor of the SADC region yet its GDP per capita is lower today than it was in 2010, unemployment stands at 32.7%, and manufacturing has failed to recover meaningfully despite four consecutive quarters of growth. The Government of National Unity has repositioned energy-led growth as the central national strategy, and the momentum is real. But momentum concentrated in network industries rather than productive industrial expansion is not transformation. This brief examines whether South Africa can close the gap between ambition and execution, and whether its regional influence in SADC can survive the credibility cost of its domestic industrial struggles.

When Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, millions of Ethiopians believed a new democratic chapter had finally begun. Eight years later, the institutions needed to deliver on that promise were never fully built, the insurgencies never fully resolved, and the elections approaching in June 2026 are widely assessed as designed to insulate the incumbent rather than test him. Ethiopia is not simply a country navigating a difficult transition — it is a state of 130 million people at a critical inflection point, whose trajectory will define the stability of the entire Horn of Africa for the decade ahead.