Political Economy Analysis

In November 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the COVID-19 era, not as a sudden shock, but as the inevitable outcome of years of infrastructure-driven borrowing, copper dependence, and fiscal mismanagement. Five years on, the IMF programme has concluded, the majority of external debt has been restructured, and a successor arrangement is being negotiated. But the discipline required to sustain the gains is already showing cracks ahead of the August 2026 elections. This brief examines where Zambia actually stands, what its experience with Chinese creditors revealed about African debt architecture, and what the investor risk outlook looks like for the months ahead.