Political Economy Analysis

Kenya enters its 2027 electoral cycle carrying the weight of a KSh 12.3 trillion debt burden, a fragmented opposition reshaped by the death of Raila Odinga, and an incumbent administration that has been quietly rearranging the institutional landscape in its favour. The fiscal pressures are real, the political signals are concerning, and the window for informed preparedness is narrowing. This brief examines what is actually happening and what must be done before the country finds itself in a crisis it could have seen coming.